Read the Policy Brief here. 

The youth population in the Global South is increasing faster than in the Global North. Estimates show that the share of the youth population is, on average, 7% higher in the Global South than in developed countries (Global North).

This youth bulge presents an opportunity for developing countries to achieve economic growth—one that follows an increase in the working-age population ratio. Yet, higher rates of the youth population can lead to a dependency ratio. That happens when the economic potential of a country is not fully harnessed due to a lack of human development interventions and employment opportunities. When an overwhelming number of working-age people cannot find work, it can lead to higher stress on the country’s economic and political systems. In this regard, Sub-Saharan Africa has the world’s highest youth dependency ratio at 78%. Developing countries face the challenge of taking advantage of this youth bulge and turning it into a demographic dividend. That way, the government can reach substantial economic growth due to the high working-age population employed in the formal sector. Over 70 million young people globally are unemployed, with Global South youth twice as likely to be unemployed or underemployed as compared to the Global North. It is also important to note that nearly 95% of Africans aged 15-24 years old work in the informal sector.

The rise of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) brings exciting possibilities and concerning challenges, particularly for youth unemployment in the Global South. The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) will create over 16 million new job opportunities across Africa by 2030, including sectors like data analysis, cybersecurity, and digital marketing.

Uganda as a case study

Our research focuses on the effect of 4IR on youth unemployment and further examines the most demanded skills for the future of work. The analysis looks at Uganda because most young people are employed in the informal sector, jobs highly vulnerable to the effects of the 4IR. Specifically, the policy brief looks at skilling gaps critical for employment in the 4IR and identifies the broad skillsets demanded in the labour market, such as digital, socio-behavioural, analytical and technical abilities.

Digital abilities are critical to developing new business models based on emerging technologies in different sectors. These applications require employees with the skills to operate technologies in the 4IR. Socio-behavioural skills entail vital soft skills to build and maintain relationships, understand and manage emotions, pursue goals, and learn from experience. Lastly, technical skills, particularly in the Science Technology Engineering Math (STEM) fields, will continue to be highly demanded to spur innovation and increase productivity.

Where does Uganda’s Youth stand?

Our study finds that Uganda’s youth is primarily unequipped with the required digital skills needed by the 4IR. Although access to the internet among Ugandan youth has increased, the majority (88%) still need internet access and are excluded from the digital economy due to high internet data costs. Uganda has the highest internet data costs in East Africa. Additionally, there is a gender gap, with young women having lower internet usage than young men, further limiting their access to opportunities in the 4IR job market.

A review of policies promoting skilling in Uganda reveals that they are aware of the current skill deficit for future jobs. However, the government needs a comprehensive assessment of the 4IR requirements. This lack of evaluation hinders the development of targeted policies and initiatives to address the specific skill needs of Ugandan youth. Without a clear understanding of the skills demanded by emerging technologies, it becomes challenging to design effective training programs. Uganda has a Technical Vocational Education and Training (TVET) policy highlighting these skills’ roles. However, the technical and vocational education and training (TVET) schools need more infrastructure, qualified trainers, and the integration of 4IR technologies in their curriculum.

Other critical policies exist, such as the Information Communication and Technology (ICT) policy. However, they have yet to be implemented due to meagre government funding. To prepare the youth for the 4IR, the government, the private sector, and other key stakeholders must engage in the productive development and implementation of upskilling and re-skilling programmes in digital skills for youth. Emphasis should be put on developing youth practical skills in social media usage for finding employment, sending and receiving emails, effectively managing and storing data labour, and learning computer programming.

Further, upskilling initiatives are also critical to provide employable socio-behavioural and personal abilities such as communication, networking, and team building, along with requisite proficiencies such as cognitive ones, which are high in demand. There is a need to strengthen and finance the education system to equip learners with solid foundational skills critical for youth employment in the 4IR labour market.

Text editor: Gabriela Keseberg Dávalos

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