CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, Deforestation and Agricultural Income in LDCs: Lessons for Post-2015 Development Agenda

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This paper examines the dynamic causal relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, energy consumption, deforestation and agricultural production in LDCs for the period 1981-2010. The study applies co-integration and vector error correction modeling to examine the relationship. A long-run relationship is found to exist among the variables. That is, in the long-run energy consumption and deforestation are likely to affect CO2 emissions positively. This implies that over time, higher energy consumption and deforestation in LDCs give rise to more CO2 emissions, which is likely to lead to more environmental pollution. In the short-run, increases in deforestation and agricultural production causes higher CO2 emissions, but increases in energy consumption does not. The study suggests that the post-2015 development agenda should include sustainable agriculture as one of the goals, which would be low carbon by nature, and can be achieved by balanced and efficient use of fertilisers and pesticides.

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